Former leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva’s lead in Brazil’s presidential race has been halved in a month by far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, according to a new poll on Wednesday. PoderData’s opinion poll showed that Lula would get 40% of the voting intentions against 35% for Bolsonaro if the October elections were held on Wednesday. In mid-March, when Bolsonaro’s former justice minister was still in contention, Lula also had 40% support, but the incumbent only attracted 30%.
In a mock second round, Lula would beat Bolsonaro by 47% to 38%, just nine percentage points, PoderData found, down from the 14-point advantage seen a month ago and a gap of 22. points at the start of 2022. Other polls from major pollsters have also shown Lula’s advantage gradually eroding, although they show it with a more comfortable lead. Datafolha put Lula ahead in the first round by 17 percentage points in mid-March, up from 26 in December.
PoderData said Bolsonaro had gained 3 points since former judge Sergio Moro, who quit as justice minister in 2020, said he was dropping out of the race, leading the pollster to rule out his name of the investigation. PoderData, the polling arm of news site Poder360, said Lula had a clear lead over Bolsonaro in Brazil’s poorest northeast, but the president was ahead in the midwestern agricultural belt and in northern Brazil.
The gap between voter intentions for Lula and Bolsonaro is within the margin of error in Brazil’s wealthier south and southeast. PoderData surveyed 3,000 voters by phone across the country between April 10 and April 12. The poll has a margin of error of 2 percentage points up or down.
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